PETALING JAYA: Strong demand for smaller cars is likely to help national carmakers Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua) and Proton Holdings Bhd to win back lost market shares while keeping total industry sales volume at record high, said AmResearch.
It predicted Perodua sales to rise 6%, boosted by its Axia, with Proton is expected to register a growth of 21%, driven by the Iriz model.
Proton and Perodua sold 115,783 units and 195,579 units respectively last year.
“Overall, we estimate national car market share to recover to 51% this year after slipping to 47% in 2014,” AmResearch said in a note.
The research house said it expected Mazda to lead sales growth among the key non-national makes this year, given its aggressive new model launches.
AmResearch noted that there would be four Mazda launches in 2015.
“Toyota sales could ease slightly, given a lack of major volume model launches and competition. Toyota’s key launches this year will likely be the facelift Camry and the completely-knocked-down (CKD) Camry hybrid, both in the D-segment.
“Nissan launched the new X-Trail in January 2015 and the Almera facelift in late 2014.”
AmResearch expects total industry volume (TIV) to rise 3.6% to 690,724 units this year.
According to data from the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), TIV in 2014 rose 1.6% to 666,465 units. MAA expects this year’s sales to reach 680,000 units.
TIV grew 1% year-on-year to 50,602 units in January from 50,273 units in the previous corresponding period.
CIMB Research in an earlier report, however, said that foreign brands were expected to continue outselling local cars this year.
“After grabbing the lead from the national brands in 2015, we believe the foreign brands will continue to be dominant in sales volume in 2015.
“This is mainly due to the narrowing gap between the prices for foreign and national cars, as increased localisation of the foreign brands drive their prices down.”
The research house noted also that under the National Automotive Policy (NAP) 2014, auto makers will be able to benefit from the Industrial Adjustment Fund, which incentivised the localisation of their production.
“They will be able to claim back the amount that they have spent on localising their production in terms of reduced excise duty. We expect that, as the foreign brands increase their localisation, the price gap between the foreign brands and the national brands to be narrowed even further.”
Because of this, CIMB said it believed the national carmakers would find it hard to regain their dominant position in the domestic market.
“However, due to the new models launched by Proton and Perodua, we expect their shares of the market to show some improvement in 2015 and close the difference in sales volume with their foreign counterparts.”
