KUALA LUMPUR: MBSB Investment Bank Bhd has maintained its full-year total industry volume (TIV) forecast at 788,000 units for 2026, implying a 4.0 per cent decline from last year's 821,000 units, which had grown 0.2 per cent year-on-year (yoy).
The forecast follows four consecutive years of growth in the automotive sector and broadly aligns with the Malaysian Automotive Association's projection of a 3.8 per cent yoy decline to 790,000 units, the bank said in a note today.
MBSB said TIV in January 2026 stood at 64,298 units, with the 29.1 per cent month-on-month decline attributed to seasonal factors, while the 28.7 per cent yoy increase was mainly supported by spill-over demand from new model launches towards the end of calendar year (CY) 2025.
"This represents eight per cent of our full-year TIV forecast and is in line with expectations. Sales are expected to remain subdued this month due to the shorter working period," the note added.
Meanwhile, momentum is building in completely knocked down (CKD) battery electric vehicle (BEV) assembly, with a growing number of investments expected among non-national marques this year.
MBSB said the trend is supported by tax exemptions through end-CY27, although it remains uncertain whether the relatively short window will sufficiently incentivise long-term local assembly plans.
